Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut? — Polymarket Odds

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None), in the "Models" view, and with no other filters applied will be used to resolve this market. A model debuts within the specified top ranks if its displayed rank at the check time is equal to or better than the specified rank (for example, a displayed rank of 4 is within the top 5 and the top 10). This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of the model's score, rank spread or confidence intervals, ranks shown under other adjustments, filters, or categories, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. A model is considered to first appear on the leaderboard on the first calendar date (ET) on which it is displayed with a rank and without the "AutoEval" label; only such ranks will be considered. An entry listed under a preliminary, code, or placeholder name is considered newly added on the first date it is displayed under a name satisfying the model specification clause above; a renamed entry's first appearance under a qualifying name counts as its addition to the leaderboard. Each separately listed entry, including reasoning or thinking-level variants of the same model, is a distinct model for the purposes of this market, and the first qualifying entry added governs resolution.

If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-ranking model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a qualifying model is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, that appearance will not qualify; if the model is subsequently displayed …