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Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 96.5%, followed by By November 30 at 88.5%, By November 19 at 65.5%. The market has $1.44M in total volume and $22.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 96.5% | -2.1 pts | $74.3K |
| By November 30 | 88.5% | +2.0 pts | $32.9K |
| By November 19 | 65.5% | -5.5 pts | $61.9K |
| By November 12 | 43.5% | -6.0 pts | $20.8K |
| By November 10 | 27% | -15.5 pts | $31.7K |
| By November 9 | 12% | -10.5 pts | $26.5K |
| By October 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.3 pts | $429.1K |
| By October 24 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $143.0K |
| By October 17 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.8 pts | $71.5K |
| By October 29 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $58.3K |
| By October 22 (settled) | 0.0% | -14.4 pts | $54.6K |
| By October 14 (settled) | 0.0% | -27.8 pts | $48.5K |
| By October 27 (settled) | 0.0% | -16.0 pts | $44.0K |
| By October 21 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.5 pts | $42.6K |
| By October 10 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.1 pts | $37.4K |
15 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $1.44M · 24h volume $22.1K · Liquidity $36.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By November 30 ■ By November 19 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Anthropic odds
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 96.5%, followed by By November 30 at 88.5%, By November 19 at 65.5%. The market has $1.44M in total volume and $22.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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