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Updated October 1, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 18.4%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 9.5%, October 31, 2026 at 1.4%. The market has $21.2K in total volume and $365 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 18.4% | +12.5 pts | $1.2K |
| December 31, 2026 | 9.5% | +2.0 pts | $9.6K |
| October 31, 2026 | 1.4% | — | $10.3K |
Total volume $21.2K · 24h volume $365 · Liquidity $6.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ March 31, 2027 ■ December 31, 2026 ■ October 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 18.4%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 9.5%, October 31, 2026 at 1.4%. The market has $21.2K in total volume and $365 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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