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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 1.8% (No 98.2%), with $21.5K traded in total and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.8% | +0.1 pts | $21.5K |
| No | 98.2% | -0.1 pts | — |
Total volume $21.5K · 24h volume $1.4K · Liquidity $1.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 1.8% (No 98.2%), with $21.5K traded in total and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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