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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 24, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 91.8% (No 8.2%), with $32.2K traded in total and $4.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 91.8% | +3.9 pts | $32.2K |
| No | 8.2% | -3.9 pts | — |
Total volume $32.2K · 24h volume $4.2K · Liquidity $28.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) and Flávio Bolsonaro participate in the same televised Brazilian presidential debate by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro must each speak at least once in the same debate, televised live.
Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 91.8% (No 8.2%), with $32.2K traded in total and $4.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 24, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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