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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 3, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 4.6%. The market has $2.16M in total volume and $34 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 4.6% | +0.1 pts | $27.1K |
| By December 31, 2025 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.39M |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $476.2K |
| By October 31, 2025 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $205.6K |
| By July 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $60.8K |
Total volume $2.16M · 24h volume $34 · Liquidity $24.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: France odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 4.6%. The market has $2.16M in total volume and $34 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 3, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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