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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 4500+ at 99.2%, followed by 4700+ at 94%, 4800+ at 55.5%. The market has $24.2K in total volume and $9.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4300+ (settled) | 100% | +3.0 pts | $3.0K |
| 4200+ (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $1.5K |
| 4000+ (settled) | 100% | +1.1 pts | $1.3K |
| 3900+ (settled) | 100% | +2.2 pts | $1.2K |
| 3700+ (settled) | 100% | +0.4 pts | $376 |
| 4100+ (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $211 |
| 3800+ (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $105 |
| 4500+ | 99.2% | +6.2 pts | $5.1K |
| 4700+ | 94% | +41.0 pts | $3.6K |
| 4800+ | 55.5% | +26.5 pts | $4.1K |
| 4900+ | 41.5% | +30.0 pts | $3.8K |
Total volume $24.2K · 24h volume $9.4K · Liquidity $4.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 4500+ ■ 4700+ ■ 4800+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Science & Space odds · Weather odds
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 4500+ at 99.2%, followed by 4700+ at 94%, 4800+ at 55.5%. The market has $24.2K in total volume and $9.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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