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Natural Disaster in 2026? — Polymarket Odds

Updated September 30, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: March 1, 2027

As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 8.5% (No 91.5%), with $247.8K traded in total and $702 in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeProbability24h changeVolume
Yes8.5%
-4.5 pts$247.8K
No91.5%
+4.5 pts—

Total volume $247.8K · 24h volume $702 · Liquidity $1.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

0%25%50%75%100%Aug 30Sep 30

■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US

- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)

- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)

- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:

https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Natural Disaster in 2026?

As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 8.5% (No 91.5%), with $247.8K traded in total and $702 in the last 24 hours.

When does the Natural Disaster in 2026 market end?

The event's listed end date is March 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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