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Updated September 30, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: March 1, 2027
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 8.5% (No 91.5%), with $247.8K traded in total and $702 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8.5% | -4.5 pts | $247.8K |
| No | 91.5% | +4.5 pts | — |
Total volume $247.8K · 24h volume $702 · Liquidity $1.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Science & Space odds · Weather odds
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 8.5% (No 91.5%), with $247.8K traded in total and $702 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is March 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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