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Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 98.8%, followed by By October 31 at 92.5%, By October 15 at 45.5%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $721 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 98.8% | -0.4 pts | $6.1K |
| By October 31 | 92.5% | +0.1 pts | $2.7K |
| By October 15 | 45.5% | -35.0 pts | $5.4K |
| By October 7 | 20.5% | -16.5 pts | $2.7K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -11.9 pts | $3.8K |
Total volume $20.7K · 24h volume $721 · Liquidity $10.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 ■ By October 15 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Anthropic odds
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 98.8%, followed by By October 31 at 92.5%, By October 15 at 45.5%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $721 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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