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Anthropic Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 55 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Anthropic: Claude model releases, rankings and a possible IPO. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Anthropic markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of September? | Anthropic 98.5% | +0.2 pts | $89.9K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO by __? | December 31, 2026 78% | -4.5 pts | $57.9K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T 89% | +0.5 pts | $39.3K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? | 1500+ 83.5% | +11.0 pts | $30.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $2.0–$2.25T 23.6% | — | $19.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Anthropic 73.5% | +3.0 pts | $14.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Next Claude Sonnet released? | By December 31 98.9% | +3.8 pts | $13.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut? | 1470+ 37.5% | +15.0 pts | $10.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? | $2.00–$2.25T 23.5% | +4.5 pts | $8.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Anthropic 88.5% | — | $7.1K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? | November 2026 51.5% | -4.4 pts | $6.3K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31? | 1560 31.5% | -6.0 pts | $3.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? | 50%+ 97.4% | +0.9 pts | $2.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Claude go down on __ days in September? | 5-7 72.5% | -3.5 pts | $1.6K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement? | By December 31, 2026 13.5% | — | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| 3rd largest private company end of September? | ByteDance 97.4% | +0.1 pts | $1.5K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Next Claude Haiku released? | By December 31 94.5% | +65.0 pts | $920 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape? | By October 15 13% | -16.0 pts | $892 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released? | By December 31 91.5% | +0.5 pts | $864 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic 90.5% | +2.5 pts | $784 | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) | 1.8T+ 82.5% | -1.0 pts | $758 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | Anthropic 94.8% | +0.1 pts | $619 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30? | ↑$1.325T 93.8% | +22.1 pts | $574 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Anthropic lab leak? | By June 30, 2027 6.5% | — | $533 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Largest private company end of September? | Anthropic 99.6% | +0.2 pts | $440 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | Yes 71% | -1.0 pts | $378 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| 2nd largest private company end of September? | OpenAI 94.5% | -1.1 pts | $350 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| What will Anthropic's public ticker be? | $ANTH 38% | -4.5 pts | $341 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Claude 6 released? | By December 31, 2027 90% | -0.5 pts | $266 | Dec 31, 2027 |
| Anthropic acquired before 2027? | Yes 2.9% | -0.2 pts | $240 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic announces bankruptcy? | By December 31, 2029 20.5% | — | $240 | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 63% | -3.5 pts | $215 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | Yes 15.5% | — | $145 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) | 600B+ 95.9% | +0.1 pts | $144 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026? | Yes 34% | -9.0 pts | $117 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | None in 2026 81% | -0.5 pts | $30 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? | $1.5T 89.8% | -0.4 pts | $20 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO? | Morgan Stanley 76% | -1.0 pts | $8 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Anthropic’s valuation end of October 2026? | $1.75-$2.00T 38.4% | -17.5 pts | $7 | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Anthropic’s valuation end of September 2026? | $1.25-$1.50T 91.5% | — | $7 | Sep 30, 2026 |
15 smaller markets are not shown; all 55 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Anthropic odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 55 live Anthropic markets with $316.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Which company has the best AI model end of September? (Anthropic 98.5%), followed by Anthropic IPO by __? (December 31, 2026 78%), Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? (↑$1.5T 89%).
How many Anthropic markets are open on Polymarket?
55 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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