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Anthropic Odds on Polymarket
Updated November 7, 2026 · 76 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Anthropic: Claude model releases, rankings and a possible IPO. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Anthropic markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Anthropic IPO by __? | December 31, 2026 87.4% | +14.3 pts | $210.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $1.25–$1.5T 31.1% | +10.0 pts | $182.0K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T 75.1% | -4.0 pts | $37.2K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released? | By December 31 98.8% | +3.9 pts | $35.0K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 63.5% | +3.0 pts | $26.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) | 1.8T+ 31.5% | -5.5 pts | $23.5K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? | November 2026 77% | +20.1 pts | $12.8K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Anthropic announces bankruptcy? | By December 31, 2029 22.5% | +2.0 pts | $12.1K | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Anthropic IPO Date | November 20 21.5% | +5.0 pts | $9.9K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut? | 1500+ 93.6% | — | $6.7K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) | 600B+ 97% | +0.7 pts | $6.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? | $1.50–$1.75T 45.8% | +22.5 pts | $6.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released? | November 10 28.9% | +7.3 pts | $5.8K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? | $75B to $85B 39.2% | +0.7 pts | $5.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What % of Anthropic will be sold in its IPO? | 5% to 6% 31.5% | +6.0 pts | $4.3K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? | Anthropic 90.5% | -2.2 pts | $3.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? | Yes 71.5% | -14.0 pts | $3.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by November 30? | ↓$1.275T 38.5% | +16.5 pts | $2.9K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? | $1.5T 55.9% | -9.8 pts | $2.9K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | Yes 70.5% | -4.5 pts | $2.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released? | No release by November 30 38.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO? | Goldman Sachs 91% | — | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic 82% | -0.5 pts | $750 | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day? | Yes 76% | -4.5 pts | $705 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2? | Google 96.8% | +0.6 pts | $476 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2? | OpenAI 97.2% | -0.9 pts | $466 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut? | 50%+ 99.3% | — | $371 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Rank Debut? | Top 10 91.5% | +0.5 pts | $332 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic lab leak? | By June 30, 2027 7.0% | — | $329 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut? | $40+ 87.8% | +16.7 pts | $292 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released? | By December 31 38% | +18.0 pts | $254 | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Claude 6 released? | By December 31, 2027 87% | -1.5 pts | $205 | Dec 31, 2027 |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? | OpenAI 54.5% | +2.5 pts | $186 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | None in 2026 49.5% | +1.0 pts | $157 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut? | 1510+ 85.5% | -2.5 pts | $126 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released? | By December 31 89% | +0.5 pts | $100 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| What will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026? | ↓ $40 32% | -0.5 pts | $94 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will Anthropic's public ticker be? | $ANT 97.4% | -0.3 pts | $75 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31? | 1580 61.5% | -2.5 pts | $60 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 27% | -0.5 pts | $60 | Jan 1, 2028 |
36 smaller markets are not shown; all 76 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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People in these markets
Morgan Stanley
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Anthropic odds on Polymarket today?
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 76 live Anthropic markets with $607.5K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Anthropic IPO by __? (December 31, 2026 87.4%), followed by Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap ($1.25–$1.5T 31.1%), Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? (↑$1.5T 75.1%).
How many Anthropic markets are open on Polymarket?
76 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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Polymarket View, “Anthropic odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/anthropic/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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