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Anthropic Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 13, 2026 · 67 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Anthropic: Claude model releases, rankings and a possible IPO. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Anthropic markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Google 70% | +0.8 pts | $69.8K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $2.0–$2.25T 26.7% | -3.2 pts | $59.0K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Anthropic announces bankruptcy? | By December 31, 2029 21.5% | — | $58.4K | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T 93.5% | +0.5 pts | $33.0K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released? | By December 31 95.5% | +0.3 pts | $26.2K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO by __? | December 31, 2026 72.5% | -2.0 pts | $25.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 42.5% | — | $21.8K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | Yes 10% | -6.5 pts | $8.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12? | OpenAI 59.5% | — | $7.4K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? | Microsoft 32.5% | — | $6.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut? | 1400+ 96% | -2.4 pts | $5.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12? | Google 55% | — | $5.1K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) | 1.8T+ 75.5% | -7.0 pts | $4.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released? | No release by October 31 18.4% | -3.7 pts | $4.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Anthropic lab leak? | By June 30, 2027 7.5% | -2.5 pts | $4.3K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? | $1.75–$2.00T 37% | +1.0 pts | $3.0K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| #1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12? | DeepSeek 85.5% | — | $2.1K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Claude 6 released? | By December 31, 2027 92.5% | — | $1.7K | Dec 31, 2027 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? | November 2026 59.1% | +1.8 pts | $1.7K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Claude go down on __ days in October? | 5-7 40.5% | -7.0 pts | $1.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) | 600B+ 94.6% | -0.5 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? | $1.5T 91.6% | +0.8 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? | 45%+ 91.3% | +2.5 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will Anthropic's frontier output token price hit in 2026? | ↑ $25 72% | — | $938 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 42.5% | -1.0 pts | $804 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released? | By December 31 84% | -2.5 pts | $750 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut? | 50%+ 81.5% | — | $701 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| What will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026? | ↓ $15 34.5% | -8.5 pts | $662 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut? | $40+ 78% | — | $645 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting? | By December 31 33.5% | -9.0 pts | $597 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by October 31? | ↑$1.4T 88.5% | — | $507 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? | OpenAI 67.5% | -11.0 pts | $491 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut? | 1510+ 85% | +18.5 pts | $482 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| What will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026? | ↓ $40 53.5% | +4.0 pts | $429 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut? | $15+ 85% | -0.5 pts | $357 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released? | By January 31 44.5% | -4.0 pts | $268 | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31? | 1560 58.5% | +2.0 pts | $256 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement? | By December 31, 2026 17.5% | +2.0 pts | $237 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | None in 2026 68% | +0.5 pts | $232 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape? | By October 31 23% | — | $168 | Nov 1, 2026 |
27 smaller markets are not shown; all 67 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Anthropic odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 13, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 67 live Anthropic markets with $362.2K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Which company has the best AI model end of October? (Google 70%), followed by Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap ($2.0–$2.25T 26.7%), Anthropic announces bankruptcy? (By December 31, 2029 21.5%).
How many Anthropic markets are open on Polymarket?
67 live markets as of October 13, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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Polymarket View, “Anthropic odds on Polymarket”, October 13, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/anthropic/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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