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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 7, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Christopher Luxon at 55%, followed by Chris Hipkins at 41%, Chlöe Swarbrick at 1.5%. The market has $39.8K in total volume and $82 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 55% | +2.0 pts | $12.5K |
| Chris Hipkins | 41% | +4.0 pts | $13.4K |
| Chlöe Swarbrick | 1.5% | -0.1 pts | $2.6K |
| David Seymour | 1.1% | +0.4 pts | $2.1K |
| Winston Peters | 0.7% | — | $2.8K |
| Carmel Sepuloni | 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $2.0K |
| Nicola Willis | 0.4% | — | $4.4K |
Total volume $39.8K · 24h volume $82 · Liquidity $160.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Christopher Luxon ■ Chris Hipkins ■ Chlöe Swarbrick · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Christopher Luxon at 55%, followed by Chris Hipkins at 41%, Chlöe Swarbrick at 1.5%. The market has $39.8K in total volume and $82 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 7, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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