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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ulf Kristersson at 56.2%, followed by Magdalena Andersson at 41.5%, Ebba Busch at 0.9%. The market has $11.44M in total volume and $336.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulf Kristersson | 56.2% | +20.4 pts | $2.35M |
| Magdalena Andersson | 41.5% | -20.0 pts | $3.16M |
| Ebba Busch | 0.9% | +0.6 pts | $1.03M |
| Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist | 0.4% | +0.3 pts | $736.4K |
| Jimmie Åkesson | <0.1% | — | $1.95M |
| Nooshi Dadgostar | <0.1% | — | $1.04M |
| Simona Mohamsson | <0.1% | — | $377.1K |
| Daniel Helldén | <0.1% | — | $339.1K |
| Anna-Karin Hatt | <0.1% | — | $312.4K |
| Amanda Lind | <0.1% | — | $135.7K |
Total volume $11.44M · 24h volume $336.9K · Liquidity $1.06M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Ulf Kristersson ■ Magdalena Andersson ■ Ebba Busch · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ulf Kristersson at 56.2%, followed by Magdalena Andersson at 41.5%, Ebba Busch at 0.9%. The market has $11.44M in total volume and $336.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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