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Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Rebeca Grynspan at 24.5%, followed by Lana Nusseibeh at 18.5%, Rafael Grossi at 14.3%. The market has $261.2K in total volume and $701 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebeca Grynspan | 24.5% | +1.5 pts | $40.2K |
| Lana Nusseibeh | 18.5% | +1.0 pts | $5.1K |
| Rafael Grossi | 14.3% | — | $39.6K |
| Olara Otunnu | 10.5% | -0.9 pts | $3.5K |
| María Fernanda Espinosa | 7.0% | -0.3 pts | $12.4K |
| Viktor Orbán | 6.7% | +5.6 pts | $6.5K |
| Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett | 4.9% | — | $6.9K |
| Michelle Bachelet | 2.0% | -0.2 pts | $12.5K |
| Macky Sall | 1.6% | -0.4 pts | $131.7K |
| Ivonne de Baki | 0.1% | — | $2.8K |
Total volume $261.2K · 24h volume $701 · Liquidity $77.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Rebeca Grynspan ■ Lana Nusseibeh ■ Rafael Grossi · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Rebeca Grynspan at 24.5%, followed by Lana Nusseibeh at 18.5%, Rafael Grossi at 14.3%. The market has $261.2K in total volume and $701 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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