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Updated October 8, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of October 8, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By March 31, 2027 at 25.5%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 7.5%. The market has $280.7K in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By March 31, 2027 | 25.5% | — | $3.3K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | -2.5 pts | $277.4K |
Total volume $280.7K · 24h volume $2.2K · Liquidity $36.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By March 31, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: United Kingdom odds · Politics odds
As of October 8, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By March 31, 2027 at 25.5%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 7.5%. The market has $280.7K in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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