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Updated October 26, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: November 6, 2026
As of October 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.2% at 36.5%, followed by 4.1% at 29.5%, 4.3% at 24.5%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $3.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | 36.5% | +1.0 pts | $5.8K |
| 4.1% | 29.5% | +1.0 pts | $7.3K |
| 4.3% | 24.5% | -1.5 pts | $3.7K |
| 4.0% | 5.1% | -0.8 pts | $1.1K |
| 4.4% | 3.4% | -2.4 pts | $1.7K |
| ≥4.6% | 1.0% | — | $548 |
| 4.5% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $557 |
| ≤3.8% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $541 |
| 3.9% | 0.2% | — | $518 |
Total volume $21.8K · 24h volume $3.1K · Liquidity $37.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 4.2% ■ 4.1% ■ 4.3% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of October 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.2% at 36.5%, followed by 4.1% at 29.5%, 4.3% at 24.5%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $3.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 6, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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