Home › Polymarket odds › Tech & AI
Updated October 12, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 12, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 5+ at 67.5%, followed by 3 at 17%, 4 at 7.8%. The market has $21.3K in total volume and $2.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5+ | 67.5% | +3.0 pts | $5.3K |
| 3 | 17% | +1.0 pts | $6.0K |
| 4 | 7.8% | -11.6 pts | $3.1K |
| 2 | 1.6% | -0.1 pts | $3.8K |
| 1 | 0.9% | -0.4 pts | $2.6K |
| <1 | <0.1% | — | $404 |
Total volume $21.3K · 24h volume $2.8K · Liquidity $7.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 5+ ■ 3 ■ 4 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · OpenAI odds
As of October 12, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 5+ at 67.5%, followed by 3 at 17%, 4 at 7.8%. The market has $21.3K in total volume and $2.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-october-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-october-2026/"># of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-october-2026.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026? — Polymarket odds”, October 12, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-october-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-october-2026/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-october-2026/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-october-2026.svg" alt="# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog