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OpenAI announces bankruptcy? — Polymarket Odds

Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2030

As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2029 at 21.5%, followed by By December 31, 2028 at 16.5%, By December 31, 2027 at 8.5%. The market has $549.3K in total volume and $445 in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeProbability24h changeVolume
By December 31, 202921.5%
-0.5 pts$122.9K
By December 31, 202816.5%
-1.0 pts$138.1K
By December 31, 20278.5%
—$288.3K

Total volume $549.3K · 24h volume $445 · Liquidity $86.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 9Nov 9

■ By December 31, 2029 ■ By December 31, 2028 ■ By December 31, 2027 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

"OpenAI" refers to OpenAI Group PBC, the company that holds the OpenAI business and is controlled by the OpenAI Foundation, its operating subsidiary OpenAI OpCo, LLC, or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, OpenAI Group PBC and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of OpenAI's business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they meet that test.

A filing for bankruptcy means a petition by an entity this market refers to (each, a "covered entity") under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or a bankruptcy case for a covered entity filed in a court outside the United States under that country's bankruptcy or insolvency law, including a court-appointed administration. A petition filed against a covered entity by its creditors will qualify only if the court enters an order for relief on that petition by the listed date.

An announcement must state that a covered entity has decided to file for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy. Statements that the company is considering, exploring, or open to bankruptcy, or that bankruptcy is one of several options, will not qualify.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying announcement or filing occurred. Reports citing unnamed sources that a covered entity plans or is preparing to file will not qualify on their own.

Once a qualifying filing or announcement occurs, this market will resolve to "Yes" even if the petition is later withdrawn, dismissed, or converted, or the company later reverses its decision.

The following will not qualify on their own: a missed payment or other default on debt; a breach of a loan covenant; foreclosure or other enforcement action by creditors; a credit rating downgrade; a debt exchange or other restructuring agreed outside of court; the appointment of a receiver; and an assignment for the benefit of creditors.

If a covered entity stops existing because of a merger or similar transaction, it will no longer be a covered entity. If, after the merger, no covered entity remains, this market will resolve to "No". If the transaction only changes a covered entity's name, state of incorporation, or legal form, or places a new holding company …

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for OpenAI announces bankruptcy?

As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2029 at 21.5%, followed by By December 31, 2028 at 16.5%, By December 31, 2027 at 8.5%. The market has $549.3K in total volume and $445 in the last 24 hours.

When does the OpenAI announces bankruptcy market end?

The event's listed end date is January 1, 2030. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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