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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Independent/Technocrat at 45%, followed by PSD at 38.9%, PNL at 10.1%. The market has $263.4K in total volume and $1.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independent/Technocrat | 45% | -2.5 pts | $89.4K |
| PSD | 38.9% | +1.5 pts | $71.2K |
| PNL | 10.1% | -3.2 pts | $52.3K |
| AUR | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $17.6K |
| USR | 0.1% | — | $13.2K |
| UDMR | 0.1% | +0.1 pts | $19.7K |
Total volume $263.4K · 24h volume $1.8K · Liquidity $91.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Independent/Technocrat ■ PSD ■ PNL · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the political party of the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If the prime minister comes from inside parliament, the party of the Prime Minister will be determined based on their formal party affiliation at the time they become Prime Minister. If the Prime Minister comes from outside parliament, their party will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting on which party they represent, hold membership in, or are formally affiliated with. If no clear affiliation exists, this market will resolve to “Independent/Technocrat”.
If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Independent/Technocrat at 45%, followed by PSD at 38.9%, PNL at 10.1%. The market has $263.4K in total volume and $1.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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