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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By 0-3 points behind at 58.5%, followed by By 3-6 points behind at 22%, By 6-9 points behind at 3.0%. The market has $23.2K in total volume and $30 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By 0-3 points behind | 58.5% | +2.0 pts | $5.2K |
| By 3-6 points behind | 22% | -3.0 pts | $2.3K |
| By 6-9 points behind | 3.0% | — | $10.8K |
| By Runs ahead | 1.5% | — | $1.6K |
| By 9+ points behind | <0.1% | -1.1 pts | $3.3K |
Total volume $23.2K · 24h volume $30 · Liquidity $4.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By 0-3 points behind ■ By 3-6 points behind ■ By 6-9 points behind · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 Minnesota general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Minnesota, and Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Minnesota.
This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Peggy Flanagan’s vote share in the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election falls below Amy Klobuchar’s vote share in the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.
If Flanagan’s vote share exceeds Klobuchar’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.
Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate.
If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”
If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2026 Midterms odds · Senate Races odds · Politics odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By 0-3 points behind at 58.5%, followed by By 3-6 points behind at 22%, By 6-9 points behind at 3.0%. The market has $23.2K in total volume and $30 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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