Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
As of September 27, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Marcelo Castro at 60.5%, followed by Ciro Nogueira at 35.5%, Julio Cesar at 6.8%. The market has $40.0K in total volume and $5 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcelo Castro | 60.5% | -3.5 pts | $10.5K |
| Ciro Nogueira | 35.5% | +5.0 pts | $11.4K |
| Julio Cesar | 6.8% | -2.1 pts | $2.5K |
| Missionário Evandro Craveiro | <0.1% | — | $1.1K |
| Toinho Dufrango | <0.1% | — | $1.1K |
| Alexandre Mariano | <0.1% | — | $999 |
| Pedro Laurentino | <0.1% | — | $982 |
| Francinaldo Leão | <0.1% | — | $971 |
| Major Paulo Roberto | <0.1% | — | $958 |
| Antônio José Lira | <0.1% | — | $954 |
| Maria Madalena Nunes | <0.1% | — | $945 |
| Irmão Evandro Marques | <0.1% | — | $935 |
| Antônio Barros | <0.1% | — | $917 |
| Dionisio Carvalho | <0.1% | — | $879 |
| Cloves José | <0.1% | — | $860 |
5 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $40.0K · 24h volume $5 · Liquidity $161.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Marcelo Castro ■ Ciro Nogueira ■ Julio Cesar · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds
As of September 27, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Marcelo Castro at 60.5%, followed by Ciro Nogueira at 35.5%, Julio Cesar at 6.8%. The market has $40.0K in total volume and $5 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/piaui-senate-election-1st-place/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/piaui-senate-election-1st-place/">Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/piaui-senate-election-1st-place.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place — Polymarket odds”, September 27, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/piaui-senate-election-1st-place/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/piaui-senate-election-1st-place/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/piaui-senate-election-1st-place/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/piaui-senate-election-1st-place.svg" alt="Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog