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Updated October 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 3.1%. The market has $139.7K in total volume and $948 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 3.1% | +0.3 pts | $1.5K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $84.2K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $54.0K |
Total volume $139.7K · 24h volume $948 · Liquidity $31.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the handshake to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, there must be video or photographic evidence.
The resolution source for this market will be photographic or digital evidence verified by a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 3.1%. The market has $139.7K in total volume and $948 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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