Home › Polymarket odds › Resolution time
Updated November 9, 2026 · sample re-collected weekly
In our sample of 2,896 resolved Polymarket markets that closed between Nov 7, 2025 and Nov 6, 2026, the typical market was settled 3.4 h after its scheduled end; 93% were settled within a day, 98% within a week. 20% resolved early, before their end date, because the event happened sooner. Resolutions were disputed on 3.2% of the markets settled through UMA (91 of 2,882). Sports games settle fastest (median 3.2 h); political questions took a median of 27.7 h and were disputed far more often (21%).
Time from each market's scheduled end date to the moment Polymarket closed it as resolved, for the markets that ran to their end date:
| Markets | Count | Median | 9 in 10 within | Within 24 h | Within 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All markets | 2,317 | 3.4 h | 10.2 h | 93% | 98% |
| Undisputed (UMA) | 2,265 | 3.3 h | 6.4 h | 95% | 98% |
| Disputed (UMA) | 42 | 4 days | 27.3 days | 17% | 76% |
A dispute sends the question to a vote of UMA token holders, which adds days. “Scheduled end” is the end date in the market data; for “by a date” questions the answer can arrive earlier, and those markets are counted as early resolutions instead.
| Category | Markets | Median after end | Resolved early | Disputed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2,286 | 3.2 h | 11% | 0.0% |
| Politics & Elections | 313 | 27.7 h | 42% | 20.6% |
| Crypto | 153 | 2.6 h | 67% | 4.6% |
| Economy & Fed | 59 | 23.2 h | 71% | 1.7% |
| Market | Outcome | Scheduled end | Closed | After end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Mayoral Election | Nithya Raman | Jun 3, 2026 | Nov 6, 2026 | 155.9 days |
| Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | Abiy Ahmed | Jun 2, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | 125.9 days |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | >$1B | Dec 31, 2025 | May 1, 2026 | 121.5 days |
| Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next? | No meeting by December 31 | Sep 30, 2025 | Jan 1, 2026 | 93.4 days |
| Next Prime Minister of Vietnam | Lê Minh Hưng | Jan 25, 2026 | Apr 7, 2026 | 72.6 days |
| Next President of Vietnam | Tô Lâm | Jan 25, 2026 | Apr 7, 2026 | 72.4 days |
| Next Prime Minister of Denmark? | Mette Frederiksen | Mar 24, 2026 | Jun 4, 2026 | 72.3 days |
| How many people will Trump deport in 2025? | 250-500k | Dec 31, 2025 | Mar 1, 2026 | 59.9 days |
Long gaps usually mean the question waited for an official result (an appointment, a certified count, a delayed launch or a postponed game), or that the market's listed end date was earlier than the deadline in its outcome.
| Market | Outcome | Disputes | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | Yes | 9 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | Game 3 Winner | 9 | Oct 11, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace? | June 30 | 3 | Jun 12, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal? | June 15 | 2 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 2 | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 2 | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire? | April 18 | 2 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Yes | 2 | Jan 1, 2026 |
The sample is the 940 highest-volume Polymarket events that closed in the last 12 months: single-question markets and, in events with several outcomes, the winning outcome (losing outcomes there are sometimes closed weeks later, which says nothing about settlement), each with at least $10,000 traded and a clean Yes or No result. Timing compares the market's end date with the time it closed; disputes come from the proposal and dispute history Polymarket publishes for each market settled through the UMA optimistic oracle. The sample is re-collected weekly. How the process works step by step: how Polymarket markets resolve; the terms dispute and early resolution are in the glossary. Related study: how accurate is Polymarket?
Free data: JSON · CSV (CC BY 4.0). Sample collected 2026-11-06.
Quoting this study in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “How long does Polymarket take to resolve markets?”, November 9, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/resolution-time/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
In our sample the median market was settled 3.4 h after its scheduled end; 93% within a day and 98% within a week. Disputed markets take longer: median 4 days.
3.2% of the markets settled through UMA in our sample had at least one dispute; 70 had two or more.
Yes. 20% of the markets in our sample closed more than an hour before their end date, usually “by a date” questions whose event happened earlier.
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Guides