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Updated November 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 13%. The market has $1.15M in total volume and $240 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 13% | +2.5 pts | $171.6K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $960.2K |
| By October 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $16.9K |
Total volume $1.15M · 24h volume $240 · Liquidity $12.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Supreme Court odds · Politics odds
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 13%. The market has $1.15M in total volume and $240 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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