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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 32.5%. The market has $354.3K in total volume and $52 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 32.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.1K |
| By May 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $180.9K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.6 pts | $155.8K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $16.4K |
Total volume $354.3K · 24h volume $52 · Liquidity $236. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify.
An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 32.5%. The market has $354.3K in total volume and $52 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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