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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: September 30, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is $2.00-$2.25T at 55%, followed by $1.75-$2.00T at 41%, $2.25T+ at 5.1%. The market has $27.4K in total volume and $2.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2.00-$2.25T | 55% | -2.0 pts | $4.8K |
| $1.75-$2.00T | 41% | +18.5 pts | $12.8K |
| $2.25T+ | 5.1% | -2.9 pts | $3.7K |
| $1.50-$1.75T | 1.7% | — | $1.7K |
| <$1.00T | 0.7% | +0.5 pts | $924 |
| $1.00-$1.25T | 0.7% | +0.4 pts | $890 |
| $1.25-$1.50T | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $2.6K |
Total volume $27.4K · 24h volume $2.9K · Liquidity $3.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $2.00-$2.25T ■ $1.75-$2.00T ■ $2.25T+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is $2.00-$2.25T at 55%, followed by $1.75-$2.00T at 41%, $2.25T+ at 5.1%. The market has $27.4K in total volume and $2.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is September 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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