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Spain General Election: PSOE % of vote? — Polymarket Odds

Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 30, 2026

As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 28-30% at 35.5%, followed by 26-28% at 32.5%, 30%+ at 12%. The market has $20.8K in total volume and $1.8K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeProbability24h changeVolume
28-30%35.5%
+4.5 pts$2.4K
26-28%32.5%
-2.0 pts$5.9K
30%+12%
-2.5 pts$4.1K
24-26%11%
+1.0 pts$6.8K
<24%4.3%
-1.9 pts$1.6K

Total volume $20.8K · 24h volume $1.8K · Liquidity $8.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 22Nov 7

■ 28-30% ■ 26-28% ■ 30%+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)

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How this market resolves

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain received by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The vote share will be calculated as the total number of valid votes received by the lists attributed to PSOE divided by the total number of valid votes cast, as reported in the official results.

Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows:

PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia.

PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre.

Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands.

ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia.

Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own.

CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands.

Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies.

Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Spain General Election: PSOE % of vote?

As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 28-30% at 35.5%, followed by 26-28% at 32.5%, 30%+ at 12%. The market has $20.8K in total volume and $1.8K in the last 24 hours.

When does the Spain General Election: PSOE % of vote market end?

The event's listed end date is November 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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