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Updated October 11, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of October 11, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is The Odyssey at 94.5%, followed by Obsession at 87%, Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 60%. The market has $21.1K in total volume and $2.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 94.5% | — | $3.9K |
| Obsession | 87% | +1.5 pts | $5.8K |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 60% | +0.5 pts | $3.6K |
| Michael | 38.5% | -4.5 pts | $2.5K |
| Toy Story 5 | 33.5% | -24.0 pts | $2.3K |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 13% | +0.5 pts | $2.7K |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 9.0% | -0.5 pts | $155 |
Total volume $21.1K · 24h volume $2.0K · Liquidity $9.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ The Odyssey ■ Obsession ■ Spider-Man: Brand New Day · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie is ranked in the Top 5 of Google’s official Year in Search Global "Movies" list for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → Movies. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure.
This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 11, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is The Odyssey at 94.5%, followed by Obsession at 87%, Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 60%. The market has $21.1K in total volume and $2.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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