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Updated September 29, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of September 29, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 15%, followed by By September 30 at 2.5%. The market has $250.4K in total volume and $741 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 15% | -10.5 pts | $13.7K |
| By September 30 | 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $7.2K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.8 pts | $176.2K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.9 pts | $53.2K |
Total volume $250.4K · 24h volume $741 · Liquidity $11.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 29, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 15%, followed by By September 30 at 2.5%. The market has $250.4K in total volume and $741 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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