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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 4.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.7%. The market has $127.4K in total volume and $371 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 4.5% | — | $37.6K |
| By September 30 | 0.7% | — | $89.8K |
Total volume $127.4K · 24h volume $371 · Liquidity $58.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, presidential memorandum, or proclamation, signs any bill into law, or otherwise formally directs the federal government to rename New Mexico to "New America" or any other name including "America" by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A formal Trump administration directive to rename New Mexico, including through the U.S. Board on Geographic Names, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "rename" includes directing the federal government to use the new name when referring to the state, regardless of whether the state's legal name is changed.
Statements, social media posts, or expressions of support for renaming New Mexico will not qualify unless accompanied by a qualifying formal action or directive.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 4.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.7%. The market has $127.4K in total volume and $371 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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