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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: November 13, 2026
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, the leading outcome is 0.4–0.5% at 39.5%, followed by 0.6–0.7% at 28.9%, 0.2–0.3% at 11%. The market has $24.2K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4–0.5% | 39.5% | — | $2.3K |
| 0.6–0.7% | 28.9% | +13.1 pts | $1.4K |
| 0.2–0.3% | 11% | -2.0 pts | $8.3K |
| Negative | 6.5% | -1.0 pts | $4.3K |
| 1.0%+ | 6.3% | +4.8 pts | $351 |
| 0.0–0.1% | 4.5% | — | $7.3K |
| 0.8–0.9% | 4.5% | -0.2 pts | $327 |
Total volume $24.2K · 24h volume $1.6K · Liquidity $4.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 0.4–0.5% ■ 0.6–0.7% ■ 0.2–0.3% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: United Kingdom odds · US Economy odds
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, the leading outcome is 0.4–0.5% at 39.5%, followed by 0.6–0.7% at 28.9%, 0.2–0.3% at 11%. The market has $24.2K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 13, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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