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Updated September 29, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 29, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By September 30 at 20.5%. The market has $47.2K in total volume and $389 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By September 30 | 20.5% | -3.0 pts | $508 |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $46.7K |
Total volume $47.2K · 24h volume $389 · Liquidity $411. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Oil & Commodities odds · Politics odds
As of September 29, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By September 30 at 20.5%. The market has $47.2K in total volume and $389 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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