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Oil & Commodities Odds on Polymarket
Updated November 7, 2026 · 59 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Crude oil, gold and other commodity price markets. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Oil & Commodities markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By March 31 69.5% | -1.5 pts | $308.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026? | ↓ $85 68% | +3.0 pts | $152.5K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? | By December 31 35.5% | — | $92.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Crude Oil all time high? | By March 31, 2027 20% | -0.5 pts | $21.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 9.5% | -0.5 pts | $17.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US imports Russian diesel? | By March 31 20% | -2.5 pts | $13.9K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December? | ↓ $3,500 8.5% | -1.0 pts | $12.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 3.2% | -0.4 pts | $11.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? | By December 31 4.5% | — | $10.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 9.5% | +2.0 pts | $5.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in November 2026? | ↑ $54 81.2% | +15.3 pts | $2.6K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in November 2026? | ↓ $4,000 77.5% | -6.5 pts | $2.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| What will gas hit by end of November? | ↓ $4.05 99.6% | +1.3 pts | $1.7K | Nov 30, 2026 |
| Houthis enter Aden? | By December 31 13.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees? | By December 31 9.0% | — | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will gas hit the week of November 2? | ↓ $4.06 99.5% | +46.0 pts | $940 | Nov 8, 2026 |
| Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? | By November 30 3.6% | +0.5 pts | $827 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November? | 25-29 50% | +8.0 pts | $714 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? | No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 90.5% | +0.5 pts | $697 | Feb 1, 2027 |
| EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026? | 30M+ 78% | -0.5 pts | $465 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30? | 10+ 23% | -0.5 pts | $404 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 9? | 210+ 18% | -9.5 pts | $326 | Nov 16, 2026 |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West)? | By December 31 72% | — | $313 | Nov 30, 2026 |
| What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of November 9 2026? | ↑ $3.60 50% | — | $294 | Nov 13, 2026 |
| Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? | Yes 35% | +0.5 pts | $284 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31? | JetBlue 6.3% | +0.2 pts | $277 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2? | 190-209 47.5% | -1.5 pts | $240 | Nov 9, 2026 |
| US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks? | Yes 8.0% | -3.0 pts | $143 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2? | 25-29 48% | -3.0 pts | $102 | Nov 9, 2026 |
| Houthis seize an oil tanker? | By November 30 3.8% | -1.2 pts | $96 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of November? | 0-4 54% | +3.5 pts | $87 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..? | December 31 7.0% | -0.5 pts | $52 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on November 9? | Up 72.5% | +21.0 pts | $42 | Nov 9, 2026 |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | Yes 6.5% | — | $42 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief? | By December 31 32% | -1.5 pts | $40 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax? | By June 30, 2028 28.5% | — | $40 | Jul 1, 2028 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping? | By November 30 36.5% | -22.0 pts | $25 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of November 9 2026? | ↑ $4,100 70% | — | $12 | Nov 13, 2026 |
| Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 | S&P 500 87.5% | +0.5 pts | $11 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31? | Germany 18% | +9.5 pts | $10 | Jan 1, 2027 |
19 smaller markets are not shown; all 59 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Oil & Commodities odds on Polymarket today?
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 59 live Oil & Commodities markets with $660.9K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 69.5%), followed by What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026? (↓ $85 68%), US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? (By December 31 35.5%).
How many Oil & Commodities markets are open on Polymarket?
59 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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Polymarket View, “Oil & Commodities odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/oil/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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