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Oil & Commodities Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 56 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Crude oil, gold and other commodity price markets. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Oil & Commodities markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026? | ↑ $95 71% | +12.0 pts | $219.2K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? | By October 31 77.2% | -15.4 pts | $170.7K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 17.5% | — | $104.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | Yes 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $40.7K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on September 23? | $87 99.9%+ | +50.0 pts | $30.5K | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes 8.0% | -0.5 pts | $25.5K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Crude Oil all time high? | By December 31 10.5% | — | $24.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in September 2026? | ↓ $4,200 47.5% | +15.5 pts | $24.2K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in September 2026? | ↓ $64 86.5% | +23.0 pts | $17.2K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees? | By December 31 25% | +2.0 pts | $15.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 12.5% | -2.5 pts | $11.4K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 23? | Up 95.5% | +45.5 pts | $11.3K | Sep 23, 2026 |
| What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of September 21 2026? | ↓ $64 80% | +34.5 pts | $10.6K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Houthis enter Aden? | By December 31 22.5% | -10.0 pts | $10.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? | No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 80.5% | +2.5 pts | $9.9K | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September? | 0-5 83% | +12.5 pts | $7.8K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December? | ↑ $5,000 30% | -2.0 pts | $6.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of September 21 2026? | ↓ $4,250 66.5% | +30.5 pts | $6.4K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of September 21 2026? | ↑ $95 57.5% | +9.5 pts | $5.2K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28? | 190-209 30% | — | $5.0K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Houthis seize an oil tanker? | By October 31 50.5% | +23.5 pts | $4.9K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief? | By October 31 28% | -4.0 pts | $4.5K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on September 23? | Up 1.5% | -72.5 pts | $3.8K | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? | By September 30 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $3.4K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on September 23? | Up 1.1% | -48.9 pts | $3.4K | Sep 23, 2026 |
| How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28? | 20-24 32% | — | $3.2K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of September 21 2026? | ↑ $3.10 94% | +17.5 pts | $2.7K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30? | 280M 68.5% | — | $2.6K | Nov 12, 2026 |
| Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 | S&P 500 53.5% | — | $2.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on September 23? | Up 54% | +4.0 pts | $1.9K | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September? | 25-29 45.5% | -14.5 pts | $1.6K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 21? | 20-24 40% | — | $1.4K | Sep 27, 2026 |
| Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz? | September 23 97.5% | +57.0 pts | $780 | Sep 30, 2026 |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 21? | 170-189 53% | — | $645 | Sep 27, 2026 |
| Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30? | 10+ 9.0% | -15.5 pts | $581 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31? | US 27.5% | +1.5 pts | $397 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | Yes 18% | +0.5 pts | $227 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25? | 280M 5.0% | -0.5 pts | $164 | Oct 8, 2026 |
| 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..? | December 31 16.5% | +0.5 pts | $69 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OPEC dissolves in 2026? | Yes 3.9% | — | $63 | Jan 1, 2027 |
16 smaller markets are not shown; all 56 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Oil & Commodities odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 56 live Oil & Commodities markets with $795.5K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026? (↑ $95 71%), followed by Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? (By October 31 77.2%), Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? (By December 31 17.5%).
How many Oil & Commodities markets are open on Polymarket?
56 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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