Home › Polymarket odds › Geopolitics & World
Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.5%. The market has $120.4K in total volume and $767 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 5.5% | -1.1 pts | $26.3K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | +0.3 pts | $94.1K |
Total volume $120.4K · 24h volume $767 · Liquidity $11.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Israel odds · Middle East odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.5%. The market has $120.4K in total volume and $767 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30/">U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy? — Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30.svg" alt="U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog