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Updated September 23, 2026 · 108 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 108 live Middle East markets with $1.29M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran ceasefire continues? (Through September 25 97.4%), followed by Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Gadi Eizenkot 52.8%), What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026? (↑ $95 70%).
The wider Middle East: Yemen and the Houthis, Red Sea shipping, Saudi Arabia and regional diplomacy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through September 25 97.4% | +0.4 pts | $265.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | Gadi Eizenkot 52.8% | -0.1 pts | $249.5K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026? | ↑ $95 70% | +11.0 pts | $219.2K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? | By October 31 77.2% | -15.4 pts | $170.7K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 14.5% | -1.0 pts | $108.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 17.5% | — | $104.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Yemen ceasefire continues? | Through September 22 98.5% | -0.7 pts | $34.6K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia? | September 28 55% | +17.5 pts | $22.2K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced? | By October 31 29.5% | +3.5 pts | $10.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Houthis enter Aden? | By December 31 22.5% | -10.0 pts | $10.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? | Mojtaba Khamenei 84.9% | +0.4 pts | $9.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon? | September 23 92.9% | +20.4 pts | $9.1K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance? | By December 31 19.5% | -0.5 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 6.5% | — | $6.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| USD x Iranian rials End of September? | 2.2M+ 91% | +6.0 pts | $6.3K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran? | By December 31 3.4% | -0.1 pts | $5.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28? | 190-209 30% | — | $5.0K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Houthis seize an oil tanker? | By October 31 51% | +24.0 pts | $4.9K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? | By September 30 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $3.4K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Israel military action against Syria? | By October 31 31% | -42.0 pts | $3.0K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| USD x Iranian rials End of September? (Higher Strikes) | 2.2 to 2.5M 78.5% | +2.0 pts | $2.4K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen? | September 24 77% | +19.0 pts | $2.3K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel? | By October 31 27.5% | -45.0 pts | $2.0K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia? | By December 31 4.6% | +0.1 pts | $1.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September? | 25-29 45.5% | -14.5 pts | $1.6K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Saudi airspace closed? | By December 31 22.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| USD x Iranian rials End of December? | 2.0 - 2.5M 38% | -0.5 pts | $1.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? | Lebanon 11% | +1.0 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian arrested by September 28? | Yes 0.5% | — | $1.2K | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country? | By October 31 39% | -18.5 pts | $1.1K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled? | By December 31 14% | -3.5 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel military action against Iraq? | By October 31 20% | — | $1.1K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran? | By December 31 3.2% | +0.4 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II? | By December 31 16% | -4.0 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates? | By October 31 29.5% | -27.0 pts | $860 | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by..? | December 31 14% | +3.0 pts | $851 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen? | By December 31, 2026 22.5% | -3.0 pts | $767 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen? | By October 31 14.9% | +4.0 pts | $758 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Israel Election: Yashar # of seats? | 22-23 22.5% | +0.5 pts | $740 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza? | By December 31 9.5% | +1.0 pts | $716 | Jan 1, 2027 |
68 smaller markets are not shown; all 108 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 108 live Middle East markets with $1.29M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran ceasefire continues? (Through September 25 97.4%), followed by Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Gadi Eizenkot 52.8%), What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026? (↑ $95 70%).
108 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/middle-east/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Middle East odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/middle-east/">Middle East odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/middle-east.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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