Home › Polymarket odds › Geopolitics & World
Updated November 7, 2026 · 121 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 121 live Middle East markets with $3.43M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? (Through November 5 99.3%), followed by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 10.5%), Houthis enter Saudi Arabia? (By December 31 69.5%).
The wider Middle East: Yemen and the Houthis, Red Sea shipping, Saudi Arabia and regional diplomacy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? | Through November 5 99.3% | +0.4 pts | $2.83M | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10.5% | -1.0 pts | $250.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Houthis enter Saudi Arabia? | By December 31 69.5% | +2.5 pts | $95.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 2.6% | -0.1 pts | $59.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi airspace closed? | By December 31 5.5% | -2.0 pts | $20.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? | December 31 9.5% | — | $19.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes 3.8% | +1.6 pts | $12.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile? | By December 31 5.0% | -0.5 pts | $10.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran? | By December 31 2.2% | +0.1 pts | $10.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Netanyahu out? | By June 30, 2027 69.5% | +9.5 pts | $9.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle) | December 31 22.5% | -7.5 pts | $8.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? | Mojtaba Khamenei 91.2% | — | $7.2K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights? | By January 31, 2027 54.5% | -4.0 pts | $6.9K | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Iran coup attempt? | By December 31, 2027 27.5% | +6.0 pts | $6.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance? | By December 31 9.5% | -2.0 pts | $5.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 9.5% | +2.0 pts | $5.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which coalition will form the next Israeli government? | Other 62.5% | +17.5 pts | $4.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon? | November 8 87.5% | +2.0 pts | $3.8K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government? | No second mandate 51% | — | $3.7K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Finance? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 32.5% | -0.5 pts | $3.4K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Justice? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 28.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.3K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran? | By December 31 2.2% | +0.1 pts | $3.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Yemen ceasefire continues? | Through November 30 90.5% | +2.0 pts | $3.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| USD x Iranian rials End of December? | 2.5 - 3.0M 42.5% | +5.5 pts | $2.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Who will be the next Speaker of the Knesset? | Yair Lapid 59.5% | +13.0 pts | $2.2K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Defense? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 35.4% | +2.5 pts | $2.2K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country? | By November 30 90% | +8.5 pts | $2.1K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Yes 3.0% | +0.1 pts | $2.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia? | By December 31 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Yes 6.9% | +0.4 pts | $1.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Houthis enter Aden? | By December 31 13.5% | — | $1.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM? | By November 30 89.2% | +4.0 pts | $1.6K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? | Venezuela 5.5% | — | $1.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi coalition strike in Yemen? | November 7 98.6% | +2.3 pts | $1.6K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced? | By December 31 22.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? | Somaliland 11% | -0.5 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of National Security? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 31.5% | +10.0 pts | $1.4K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Will Iran target Iraq? | By November 30 82.5% | +13.0 pts | $1.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures)? | By November 30 98.4% | +1.9 pts | $1.1K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Will Iran damage undersea internet cables? | By December 31 11.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
81 smaller markets are not shown; all 121 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
🔔 Get alerts when big Middle East markets move — free Telegram watchlist
Reza Pahlavi · Mojtaba Khamenei · Masoud Pezeshkian · Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf · Abbas Araghchi · Ahmad Vahidi · Joint List · Benjamin Netanyahu · Gadi Eizenkot · Naftali Bennett · Avigdor Lieberman · Yair Golan · Moshe Feiglin · Yair Lapid · Nir Barkat
Iran (116) · Strait of Hormuz (30) · Israel (97) · Russia–Ukraine War (141) · China & Taiwan (80) · Venezuela (28) · Geopolitics (163)
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 121 live Middle East markets with $3.43M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? (Through November 5 99.3%), followed by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 10.5%), Houthis enter Saudi Arabia? (By December 31 69.5%).
121 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded Middle East markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/middle-east/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Middle East odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/middle-east/">Middle East odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/middle-east.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
Markdown for READMEs and newsletters:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/middle-east/)
Polymarket View, “Middle East odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/middle-east/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog