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Updated October 26, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of October 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By March 31 at 31.5%, followed by By December 31 at 16%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By March 31 | 31.5% | +2.5 pts | $11.7K |
| By December 31 | 16% | -3.5 pts | $8.3K |
Total volume $20.1K · 24h volume $1.2K · Liquidity $57.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By March 31 ■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the United States files a civil or criminal action against U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar in any United States federal court that seeks to revoke her naturalized citizenship, or whose success — whether by judgment, conviction, or otherwise — would revoke or require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The following will not qualify on their own: a civil or criminal action whose success would neither revoke nor require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship; a referral, an investigation, a subpoena, an executed search warrant, a grand jury proceeding, or a public statement of intent to seek denaturalization by any official.
Voluntary dismissal, withdrawal, denial, or any other post-filing development will not affect resolution once a qualifying action has been filed.
The primary resolution source will be the public docket of the relevant United States court (accessible via PACER) and/or an official announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds
As of October 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By March 31 at 31.5%, followed by By December 31 at 16%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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