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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 25, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia at 63%, followed by Student List – Students Win at 37%, Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! at 0.3%. The market has $54.8K in total volume and $11.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia | 63% | +2.0 pts | $17.5K |
| Student List – Students Win | 37% | -2.5 pts | $31.2K |
| Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! | 0.3% | +0.2 pts | $1.3K |
| SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $878 |
| Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $785 |
| Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) | 0.1% | — | $839 |
| Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $651 |
| European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $582 |
| Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification | <0.1% | — | $574 |
| Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović | <0.1% | -0.4 pts | $447 |
Total volume $54.8K · 24h volume $11.4K · Liquidity $181.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia ■ Student List – Students Win ■ Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election.
Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia at 63%, followed by Student List – Students Win at 37%, Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! at 0.3%. The market has $54.8K in total volume and $11.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 25, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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