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Updated October 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 26, 2026
As of October 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Flávio Bolsonaro <4% at 48%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% at 35.5%, Lula da Silva <4% at 10%. The market has $26.8K in total volume and $19.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro <4% | 48% | -4.5 pts | $5.4K |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | 35.5% | +3.0 pts | $4.2K |
| Lula da Silva <4% | 10% | -2.5 pts | $3.5K |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | 4.2% | +0.8 pts | $4.6K |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | 4.2% | +0.9 pts | $5.2K |
| Lula da Silva 4-8% | 0.8% | -1.9 pts | $1.5K |
| Lula da Silva 12%+ | 0.2% | -0.4 pts | $1.7K |
| Lula da Silva 8-12% | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $704 |
Total volume $26.8K · 24h volume $19.4K · Liquidity $273.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Flávio Bolsonaro <4% ■ Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% ■ Lula da Silva <4% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Flávio Bolsonaro <4% at 48%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% at 35.5%, Lula da Silva <4% at 10%. The market has $26.8K in total volume and $19.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 26, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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