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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: October 30, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is ≥3.0% at 73%, followed by 2.5–3.0% at 12.5%, 2.0–2.5% at 11.5%. The market has $42.0K in total volume and $812 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥3.0% | 73% | -0.5 pts | $31.1K |
| 2.5–3.0% | 12.5% | — | $4.1K |
| 2.0–2.5% | 11.5% | -2.0 pts | $2.5K |
| 1.5–2.0% | 3.5% | -0.2 pts | $1.0K |
| <0.5% | 1.1% | +0.1 pts | $1.5K |
| 1.0–1.5% | 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $966 |
| 0.5–1.0% | 0.6% | — | $877 |
Total volume $42.0K · 24h volume $812 · Liquidity $9.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ ≥3.0% ■ 2.5–3.0% ■ 2.0–2.5% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is ≥3.0% at 73%, followed by 2.5–3.0% at 12.5%, 2.0–2.5% at 11.5%. The market has $42.0K in total volume and $812 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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