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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: December 1, 2026
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 30 at 68.5%, followed by By October 31 at 5.3%. The market has $40.6K in total volume and $3 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By November 30 | 68.5% | +14.5 pts | $994 |
| By October 31 | 5.3% | +0.4 pts | $13.2K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -9.3 pts | $19.3K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.7 pts | $6.6K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -9.6 pts | $412 |
Total volume $40.6K · 24h volume $3 · Liquidity $10.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By November 30 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 30 at 68.5%, followed by By October 31 at 5.3%. The market has $40.6K in total volume and $3 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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