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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: May 29, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 3.5%. The market has $1.81M in total volume and $89 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 3.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.08M |
| By December 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $417.0K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $200.0K |
| By January 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $106.2K |
Total volume $1.81M · 24h volume $89 · Liquidity $16.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Iran odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 3.5%. The market has $1.81M in total volume and $89 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is May 29, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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