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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓ $40 at 79%, followed by ↓ $30 at 57.5%, ↓ $25 at 23.5%. The market has $21.2K in total volume and $69 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $40 | 79% | -1.0 pts | $3.5K |
| ↓ $30 | 57.5% | +3.5 pts | $4.0K |
| ↓ $25 | 23.5% | -2.5 pts | $4.7K |
| ↑ $60 | 9.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.7K |
| ↑ $75 | 9.5% | — | $3.6K |
| ↑ $100 | 5.5% | — | $1.8K |
Total volume $21.2K · 24h volume $69 · Liquidity $5.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ ↓ $40 ■ ↓ $30 ■ ↓ $25 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of OpenAI's latest GPT Astra model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's latest GPT Astra model means the model with the highest GPT version number among models by OpenAI explicitly named Astra, such as GPT-6 Astra, that have a standard output token price listed on OpenAI's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify.
The relevant price is the “Standard” output token price on OpenAI’s official API pricing page, using the “Short context” rate where context-based pricing differs. Prices for batch, flex, fast mode, priority, long-context, cached, or regional and data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies.
A price qualifies only while the model is OpenAI's latest GPT Astra model as defined above, after market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be OpenAI's official API pricing page (https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing). Official announcements and archived copies of this page may be used to confirm prices and when they were displayed; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · OpenAI odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓ $40 at 79%, followed by ↓ $30 at 57.5%, ↓ $25 at 23.5%. The market has $21.2K in total volume and $69 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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