Home › Polymarket odds › Tech & AI
Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓ $45 at 82%, followed by ↓ $40 at 60.5%, ↓ $30 at 60%. The market has $20.4K in total volume and $305 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $45 | 82% | -3.5 pts | $3.6K |
| ↓ $40 | 60.5% | -4.5 pts | $3.3K |
| ↓ $30 | 60% | +3.5 pts | $4.7K |
| ↑ $55 | 3.9% | -0.2 pts | $4.2K |
| ↑ $70 | 3.6% | -0.1 pts | $991 |
| ↑ $60 | 1.4% | -0.2 pts | $3.6K |
Total volume $20.4K · 24h volume $305 · Liquidity $4.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ ↓ $45 ■ ↓ $40 ■ ↓ $30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the standard output token price of OpenAI's frontier model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's frontier model means the model with the highest score in the "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index" (AAII) column of the model leaderboard at https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models among entries listing OpenAI as the "Creator". The "Status" filter must be set to "Current", with "Weights", "Size", "Price", and "Reasoning" set to "All".
Only models with a standard output token price listed on OpenAI's official API pricing page will be considered. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify.
Where the leaderboard lists one model under several reasoning-effort or configuration settings, those entries count as the same model and its highest displayed score applies. If two or more qualifying models share the highest displayed score, all respective standard output token prices of those models will be considered. Scores will be taken as displayed under the index, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data published elsewhere.
The relevant price is the “Standard” output token price on OpenAI’s official API pricing page, using the “Short context” rate where context-based pricing differs. Prices for batch, flex, fast mode, priority, long-context, cached, or regional and data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies.
A price qualifies only while the model meets the frontier definition above, after market creation. A later leaderboard appearance or score change will not cause an earlier price to qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the Artificial Analysis leaderboard for model scores and OpenAI's official API pricing page (https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing) for prices. Official announcements and archived copies of these pages may be used to confirm the scores, prices, and when they were displayed; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · OpenAI odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓ $45 at 82%, followed by ↓ $40 at 60.5%, ↓ $30 at 60%. The market has $20.4K in total volume and $305 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/what-will-openais-frontier-output-token-price-hit-in-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="What will OpenAI's frontier output token price hit in 2026? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/what-will-openais-frontier-output-token-price-hit-in-2026/">What will OpenAI's frontier output token price hit in 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/what-will-openais-frontier-output-token-price-hit-in-2026.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “What will OpenAI's frontier output token price hit in 2026? — Polymarket odds”, November 12, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/what-will-openais-frontier-output-token-price-hit-in-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/what-will-openais-frontier-output-token-price-hit-in-2026/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/what-will-openais-frontier-output-token-price-hit-in-2026/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/what-will-openais-frontier-output-token-price-hit-in-2026.svg" alt="What will OpenAI's frontier output token price hit in 2026? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog