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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: January 2, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Mariah Carey at 98.5%, followed by Morgan Wallen at 27.5%, Lil Baby at 24.9%. The market has $176.5K in total volume and $478 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny (settled) | 100% | +1.1 pts | $29.6K |
| Drake (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $9.0K |
| Harry Styles (settled) | 100% | +5.9 pts | $6.8K |
| Ariana Grande (settled) | 100% | +1.9 pts | $4.2K |
| Olivia Rodrigo (settled) | 100% | +34.2 pts | $949 |
| Mariah Carey | 98.5% | — | $5.5K |
| Morgan Wallen | 27.5% | +0.5 pts | $464 |
| Lil Baby | 24.9% | +8.1 pts | $1.1K |
| Post Malone | 21.5% | +10.0 pts | $1.2K |
| SZA | 21% | -1.5 pts | $971 |
| Kendrick Lamar | 17.5% | +2.5 pts | $5.5K |
| Zach Bryan | 15.6% | +1.4 pts | $1.1K |
| Jack Harlow | 14.2% | +2.0 pts | $9.0K |
| Ed Sheeran | 13.7% | -4.2 pts | $809 |
| Luke Combs | 13.5% | — | $3.0K |
12 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $176.5K · 24h volume $478 · Liquidity $6.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Mariah Carey ■ Morgan Wallen ■ Lil Baby · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.
Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Music odds · Pop Culture odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Mariah Carey at 98.5%, followed by Morgan Wallen at 27.5%, Lil Baby at 24.9%. The market has $176.5K in total volume and $478 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 2, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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