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Updated September 25, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: January 2, 2027
As of September 25, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Nicki Minaj at 63.5%, followed by JAY-Z at 62%, Frank Ocean at 20.5%. The market has $139.2K in total volume and $324 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charli XCX (settled) | 100% | +2.1 pts | $19.0K |
| Kanye West (settled) | 100% | -4.0 pts | $16.5K |
| A$AP Rocky (settled) | 100% | +0.4 pts | $12.5K |
| Kendrick Lamar (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $11.9K |
| Lana Del Rey (settled) | 100% | +0.2 pts | $11.5K |
| Drake (settled) | 100% | +0.9 pts | $9.8K |
| SZA (settled) | 100% | +38.1 pts | $8.4K |
| Lil Uzi Vert (settled) | 100% | +17.7 pts | $6.3K |
| Olivia Rodrigo (settled) | 100% | +0.2 pts | $4.7K |
| Beyoncé (settled) | 100% | +41.9 pts | $2.5K |
| Taylor Swift (settled) | 100% | +1.9 pts | $1.5K |
| BTS (settled) | 100% | — | — |
| Nicki Minaj | 63.5% | +15.5 pts | $8.8K |
| JAY-Z | 62% | +21.0 pts | $14.6K |
| Frank Ocean | 20.5% | -2.0 pts | $11.3K |
Total volume $139.2K · 24h volume $324 · Liquidity $772. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Nicki Minaj ■ JAY-Z ■ Frank Ocean · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances or leaks) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, remixes, or alternate versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count.
If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them.
For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution.
The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Music odds · Pop Culture odds
As of September 25, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Nicki Minaj at 63.5%, followed by JAY-Z at 62%, Frank Ocean at 20.5%. The market has $139.2K in total volume and $324 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 2, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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