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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is NewJeans at 51.5%, followed by Twice at 45.8%. The market has $125.4K in total volume and $73 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Itzy (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $35.9K |
| IVE (settled) | 100% | +5.1 pts | $29.0K |
| Illit (settled) | 100% | +3.1 pts | $17.0K |
| Aespa (settled) | 100% | +21.9 pts | $10.5K |
| Babymonster (settled) | 100% | — | $10.4K |
| Le Sserafim (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $3.5K |
| Blackpink (settled) | 100% | +0.2 pts | $3.4K |
| I-dle (settled) | 100% | +2.0 pts | — |
| NewJeans | 51.5% | — | $507 |
| Twice | 45.8% | +14.8 pts | $15.2K |
Total volume $125.4K · 24h volume $73 · Liquidity $105. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ NewJeans ■ Twice · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed group officially releases a new song between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Officially released means that a newly released song is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Songs released by individual members, subgroups, or any other configuration not under the listed group name will not qualify. If a song is released jointly by multiple groups credited equally as primary artists, the song will count for all of them.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or remixes will not count.
The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Music odds · Celebrities & Creators odds · Pop Culture odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is NewJeans at 51.5%, followed by Twice at 45.8%. The market has $125.4K in total volume and $73 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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