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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) at 85.6%, followed by Centre Party (C) at 50%, Green Party (MP) at 41%. The market has $156.6K in total volume and $6.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 85.6% | -4.2 pts | $37.7K |
| Centre Party (C) | 50% | -0.5 pts | $14.8K |
| Green Party (MP) | 41% | -4.5 pts | $17.7K |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 14% | -0.5 pts | $11.8K |
| Moderate Party (M) | 13.5% | -1.5 pts | $15.9K |
| Left Party (V) | 10.5% | +0.5 pts | $22.2K |
| Liberals (L) | 10.5% | -2.5 pts | $13.6K |
| Sweden Democrats (SD) | 4.2% | -0.4 pts | $20.1K |
| Citizens' Coalition (MED) | 0.6% | +0.2 pts | $2.9K |
Total volume $156.6K · 24h volume $6.1K · Liquidity $113.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) ■ Centre Party (C) ■ Green Party (MP) · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) at 85.6%, followed by Centre Party (C) at 50%, Green Party (MP) at 41%. The market has $156.6K in total volume and $6.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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