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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Likud at 50%, followed by No Endorsement at 44%, Yashar at 0.3%. The market has $45.4K in total volume and $604 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 50% | +1.0 pts | $20.0K |
| No Endorsement | 44% | +1.0 pts | $13.0K |
| Yashar | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $2.8K |
| Together | 0.3% | — | $2.4K |
| Blue and White | <0.1% | — | $1.4K |
| Otzma Yehudit | <0.1% | — | $1.2K |
| UTJ | <0.1% | — | $1.1K |
| Religious Zionism | <0.1% | — | $866 |
| Shas | <0.1% | — | $579 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | <0.1% | — | $451 |
| New Hope | <0.1% | — | $450 |
| Noam | <0.1% | — | $446 |
| Democrats | <0.1% | — | $446 |
| Hadash–Ta'al | <0.1% | — | $371 |
Total volume $45.4K · 24h volume $604 · Liquidity $110.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Likud ■ No Endorsement ■ Yashar · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve based on which party Donald Trump announces that he supports, endorses, or otherwise tells people to vote for in the 2026 Israeli legislative election.
In the event that Donald Trump endorses a candidate to be Prime Minister of Israel, this market will resolve in favor of the party that the individual represents as of the time of the endorsement or, if such individual does not represent a party, to the next party that the individual unambiguously represents.
In the event that Donald Trump issues a qualifying endorsement of more than one candidate or party, it will be considered an endorsement of only either the party who was first endorsed or, should such a temporal determination not be possible, in alphabetical order of the endorsed parties.
Statements that are clearly sarcastic, jokes, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support shall not be considered relevant for purposes of this market.
If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the earliest of either December 31, 2026, or the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Endorsement".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Israel odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Likud at 50%, followed by No Endorsement at 44%, Yashar at 0.3%. The market has $45.4K in total volume and $604 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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