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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 2, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is John Fetterman at 15.5%, followed by Josh Hawley at 14.1%, Raphael Warnock at 12.4%. The market has $182.1K in total volume and $8.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Fetterman | 15.5% | — | $5.7K |
| Josh Hawley | 14.1% | -1.5 pts | $24.2K |
| Raphael Warnock | 12.4% | — | $3.0K |
| Jacky Rosen | 11.5% | — | $23.0K |
| Thom Tillis | 11.5% | — | $21.3K |
| Mike Lee | 9.5% | — | $14.8K |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 9.5% | — | $6.4K |
| Alex Padilla | 8.8% | -1.1 pts | $7.1K |
| Ruben Gallego | 8.1% | -0.2 pts | $15.3K |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | 8.0% | -0.5 pts | $6.7K |
| Mark Warner | 7.6% | +0.4 pts | $22.7K |
| Rand Paul | 7.5% | -4.0 pts | $10.0K |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | 6.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.6K |
| Andy Kim | 6.3% | +0.4 pts | $3.2K |
| Jerry Moran | 2.1% | -0.2 pts | $13.1K |
Total volume $182.1K · 24h volume $8.3K · Liquidity $67.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ John Fetterman ■ Josh Hawley ■ Raphael Warnock · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.
This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.
Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Crypto Regulation odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is John Fetterman at 15.5%, followed by Josh Hawley at 14.1%, Raphael Warnock at 12.4%. The market has $182.1K in total volume and $8.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 2, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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