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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Andy Beshear at 87.5%, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 85%, Rahm Emanuel at 70%. The market has $88.1K in total volume and $1.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Beshear | 87.5% | -6.5 pts | $1.2K |
| Pete Buttigieg | 85% | — | $545 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 70% | — | $320 |
| Ron DeSantis | 68% | +0.5 pts | $513 |
| Gavin Newsom | 65.5% | +0.5 pts | $5.7K |
| Andrew Yang | 65.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.2K |
| Ted Cruz | 64% | -2.0 pts | $3.2K |
| Mark Kelly | 59% | — | $501 |
| J.D. Vance | 58% | -31.8 pts | $2.6K |
| Cory Booker | 57.5% | +0.5 pts | $991 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 54.5% | +2.5 pts | $3.9K |
| Jon Ossoff | 53.5% | -5.0 pts | $2.7K |
| Josh Shapiro | 53% | — | $276 |
| Wes Moore | 53% | — | $170 |
| J.B. Pritzker | 50% | -9.0 pts | $332 |
51 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $88.1K · 24h volume $1.1K · Liquidity $358.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Andy Beshear ■ Pete Buttigieg ■ Rahm Emanuel · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Andy Beshear at 87.5%, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 85%, Rahm Emanuel at 70%. The market has $88.1K in total volume and $1.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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