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Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jay Clayton at 83.5%, followed by No Czar by December 31 at 11.3%, Michael Kratsios at 3.3%. The market has $23.3K in total volume and $6.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Clayton | 83.5% | -7.5 pts | $18.4K |
| No Czar by December 31 | 11.3% | +6.8 pts | $700 |
| Michael Kratsios | 3.3% | +0.8 pts | $2.2K |
| Emil Michael | 1.6% | — | $292 |
| Sriram Krishnan | 0.8% | +0.2 pts | $482 |
| Sean Cairncross | 0.6% | -0.1 pts | $461 |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $372 |
| Scott Kupor | 0.5% | -2.5 pts | $348 |
Total volume $23.3K · 24h volume $6.7K · Liquidity $97.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Jay Clayton ■ No Czar by December 31 ■ Michael Kratsios · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be AI czar.
An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to appoint a specific individual as AI czar will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal appointment actually occurs.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the AI czar or future AI czar. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
An announcement will qualify regardless of the name used to refer to AI, including "super intelligence" (SI). However, the person must be announced as the "czar" or a derivative thereof.
If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for AI czar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Czar by December 31”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · AI odds · Politics odds
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jay Clayton at 83.5%, followed by No Czar by December 31 at 11.3%, Michael Kratsios at 3.3%. The market has $23.3K in total volume and $6.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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